Bob's Mortgage Minute: July 2012

Monday, July 30, 2012

I'm Back - Here's the Weekly Preview ...

Amazing vacation to Alaska ... Incredible scenery ... Lots of pictures ...

In the meantime - here is this week's Market Preview ...


Forwarded exclusively by:	Bob Rosenbaum Access National Mortgage Office: (703) 879-5200 Email: RRosenbaum@AccessNational.com website: www.MyTalentedLender.com
Big enough to compete, small enough to care.
Monday, July 30, 2012
This Week; one of the busiest in months with most attention on Central Banks in the US and Europe. The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday with the policy statement Wednesday afternoon. It is widely believed in markets that the Fed will start another QE the question at the moment isn’t will they but when. Some believe the Fed will announce an easing move on Wednesday while others are saying at the Sept FOMC meeting. The European Central Bank will meet on Thursday, an even more important event than the FOMC meeting. Last week interest rate markets were rocked when the President of the ECB said in a speech the bank will do whatever it takes to save the euro. Since then Germany and Italy in talks over the weekend sounded upbeat. Last week on the Draghi comments the 10 yr note and mortgage rates jumped; the 10 yr yield up 14 basis point since Wednesday and mortgage rates up 7 to 9 basis points in rates. Adding to the importance of the week; the July employment report on Friday, early estimates call for private job growth of 105K with unemployment rate unchanged at 8.2%. The two key ISM reports also out this week, manufacturing index expected about unchanged at 49.9 and the services sector at 52.2 frm 52.1 in June. Easing from the Fed and the ECB meeting are the dominant focus this week but the data also important. We expect an increase in market volatility this week; technically the US interest rate markets are trading at critical levels.

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Monday, July 9, 2012

Mortgage Rates & Weekly Market Preview 7/9

Rates remain at all time lows ... For purchase or refinance - here are my rates for today (July 9th) ...

3.625% Conventional 30 Year Fixed, No Points
3.000% Conventional 15 Year Fixed, No Points
3.375% FHA 30 Year Fixed, No Points
3.625% FHA 30 Year Fixed, No Points (Loan >$417,000)
3.375% VA 30 Year Fixed, No Points
3.625% VA 30 Year Fixed, No Points (Loan >$417,000)

Loan assumptions: Loan Amount <$417,000, 25% equity, Credit Score >740, Single Family/TH, Primary Residence, No Subordinate Financing, and No Cash Out on Refinancing.
For loans $417,001 - $625,500 Add 1/2 point for the same rate.
FHA requires minimum 3.5% down
VA Loans are available to eligible veterans with as little as ZERO Down.

Rates are subject to change at any time - This does not constitute an offer of credit - Not all applicants will qualify for the rates above.

EQUAL HOUSING LENDER

Robert F. Rosenbaum, Jr.
The Rosenbaum Lending Group
Access National Mortgage
1800 Robert Fulton Drive, Suite 350
Reston, VA 20191
(703) 879-5200 Direct
(202) 746-5937 Cellular
(703) 891-9815 Direct Fax
RRosenbaum@AccessNational.com
http://www.MyTalentedLender.com
NMLS License: 649782
Company NMLS: 408540


Forwarded exclusively by:	Bob Rosenbaum Access National Mortgage Office: (703) 879-5200 Email: RRosenbaum@AccessNational.com website: www.MyTalentedLender.com
Big enough to compete, small enough to care.
Monday, July 09, 2012
This Week; Monday opens with the 10 yr treasury not breaking out of its month-long trading range, the breakout is sending rates lower and should continue to push the 10 yr to 1.47% the reactionary low at the beginning of June. This week Treasury will auction $66B of notes and bonds; 3 yr, 10 yr and 30 yr terms on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Last Friday’s employment data was so weak that there is now a strong view in markets that the Fed will have to ease again with QE 3. That idea has pushed yields lower along with rate cuts in China and Europe last week. Recent trade has been technically stronger in the MBS markets than treasuries with the 30 yr FNMA coupon breaking into new high prices before the 10 yr note broke through. The U. of Michigan sentiment index on Friday. Monday, one of our favorite reports, consumer credit, the pulse of spending and credit use. The week doesn’t present much key data; the minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be released Wednesday, weekly claims on Thursday is expected to decline 15K to 360K. Europe remains in the gun sights, last week not much out of the region except the ECB cutting rates. Nothing of substance from Germany, the key to the survival of the EU.

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Sunday, July 8, 2012

Practical Financial Tips - 8 Yard Sale Tips and More ...

Bob Rosenbaum, Jr.
The Rosenbaum Lending Group
Access National Mortgage
Phone: (703) 879-5200
Cellular (202) 746-5937
NMLS: # 649782
RRosenbaum@AccessNational.com
www.MyTalentedLender.com

Selling E-Books to Earn Extra Cash
With low production costs and little hassle, creating an e-book can help boost your income and reputation.
By Lisa Gerstner, Kiplinger.com

Tara Jefferson spent a year and a half on a book proposal for traditional publishers before she decided to just write the book. Last May, she produced an e-book titled Make It Happen: The Young Mommy Guide to Creating the Career You Crave using Amazon's CreateSpace, at no cost. Jefferson, 26, has sold some 650 copies, pocketing about $840. "It exceeded my expectations," she says.

As e-books become mainstream, authors are taking advantage of low do-it-yourself costs. Self-published titles at e-book publisher Smashwords more than tripled in 2011 to 92,500, up from 28,800 in 2010.

Anyone can create a digital book free with such publishers as CreateSpace, Lulu and Smashwords. You'll keep a percentage of your sales, often in the range of 60% to 90%; the publisher or distributor takes the rest. If you're serious about selling, invest in professional design, editing and marketing, says Mark Levine, author of The Fine Print of Self-Publishing. Basic services from self-publishing sites or outside sources run as little as a few hundred dollars. Top-of-the-line services could run $10,000 to $20,000. Be aware that you may not recover your costs.

Jefferson, who is making a career of writing for young mothers, has widened her circle of connections and landed speaking gigs. And successful self-publishers sometimes snag traditional publishing deals.

Reprinted with permission. All Contents ©2012 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. Kiplinger.com.

Eight Yard Sale Tips

The weather is getting warmer, which makes this a great time of year to hold a yard sale. Here are eight tips to help make your yard sale a success:

Start your yard sale earlier than other yard sales in your area so shoppers will start their shopping day with you.
Don't schedule your yard sale on a holiday weekend or during a big event in your area (like a sporting event or festival).
If it rains, consider taking down your signs and rescheduling your sale so you can maximize traffic on the day of your sale.

Before your own yard sale, visit other sales in your neighborhood to get an idea of typical prices.
Place all of your items (except for large items) on tables so shoppers don't have to bend.
If you plan to sell electrical items, have an outlet and extension cord handy so you can show shoppers that the items work.
If you want to sell larger ticket items, look for those items in a local circular and then attach the ad to your item so shoppers can see that they are getting a great deal.
If you have a variety of items that men would like, place them on their own table.

And remember, a successful sale is also a safe sale. Keep money in a pouch around your waist instead of in a cash box (which could get stolen while you are helping shoppers), don't accept checks (which could bounce), and never allow strangers inside your home to use the bathroom or telephone.

Got Rewards?

These days, there are many different types of credit card rewards out there. Here are a few things to keep in mind when deciding which is best for you.

Airline Miles: If you travel frequently, then maximizing your airline miles may be the very best reward. And if you primarily fly on a single carrier, you will do the best to take their affiliated credit card, as they typically offer 'bonus' opportunities to earn extra miles.

Cash Back: There are several items to consider when focusing in on cash back cards, most importantly being the fine print. For example, some cards have tiers – which means, you won't earn the most cash back until you reach a certain amount of spending for the year.

Store Cards: Cards issued by particular merchants can be some of the most valuable cards if you are a frequent shopper at that store.

Points Cards: Many rewards cards offer general purpose points that can be redeemed for a wide variety of items, including airline miles, cash back, gift cards from a variety of places, gifts to charity or simply merchandise. These cards can be very beneficial due to the flexibility that they offer.

All loans subject to credit approval and property appraisal. Programs, rates, and terms subject to change without notice. For ARM loans, rate may increase after settlement. Prequalification is not a commitment to lend, a condition of loan approval, or an application for credit. Pre-approvals will result in a loan decision subject to conditions. Consult a tax advisor regarding the deductibility of interest.-- a division of Access National Bank

Friday, July 6, 2012

Mortgage Rates 7/6/12

Rates remain at all time lows ... For purchase or refinance - here are my rates for today (July 6th) ...

3.625% Conventional 30 Year Fixed, No Points
3.000% Conventional 15 Year Fixed, No Points
3.375% FHA 30 Year Fixed, No Points
3.750% FHA 30 Year Fixed, No Points (Loan >$417,000)
3.500% VA 30 Year Fixed, No Points
3.750% VA 30 Year Fixed, No Points (Loan >$417,000)

Market Snapshot


Forwarded exclusively by:	Bob Rosenbaum Access National Mortgage Office: (703) 879-5200 Email: RRosenbaum@AccessNational.com website: www.MyTalentedLender.com
Big enough to compete, small enough to care.
Friday, July 06, 2012
Just prior to the 8:30 employment report for June the 10 yr note traded +3/32 at 1.58%, 30 yr MBS price +1/32 (.03 bp). The expectations for private jobs was increased yesterday after ADP reported 176K private jobs, with forecasts of just 105K. 30 yr mortgage rates hit a new record low yesterday, not by a lot but a new record nonetheless; the 10 yr note has technical resistance at 1.56%. June employment data at 8:30 was another indication the US economy is slipping; non-farm jobs after the ADP data yesterday were expected up 115K with most guessers increasing estimates. Non-farm jobs increased a weak 80K, private jobs up 84K, half what ADP thinks. The unemployment rate unchanged at 8.2%. If we average out the private job growth it amounts to 1680 new jobs per state, hardly a reflection of any job growth of substance. The only positives were average hourly earnings were up 0.6% and the average work week was longer. Europe is continuing to drag the world down. There are those however that will argue there are other issues pulling recovery down but the bottom line, with no caveats, is Europe’s inability to find a workable solution to the over-spending in many of the EU countries that went completely unchecked for years; the US sub-prime meltdown began the financial crisis that continues with no end in sight at the moment. The IMF is about to lower (again) its estimate for global growth. Weakness in investment, jobs and manufacturing in Europe, the U.S., Brazil, India and China, Managing Director Lagarde said in a speech in Tokyo that is forcing it to lower its forecasts once again. The IMF has already lowered its U.S. growth estimate to 2.0% from April’s 2.1%. “The global growth outlook will be somewhat less than we anticipated just three months ago,” Lagarde said. “And even that lower projection will depend on the right policy actions being taken.” The new outlook will be announced in 10 days according to Lagarde, after an April estimate of 3.5%. The most recent Federal Reserve data released last month lowered the growth outlook for the US for the second time since last November. After another weaker data point the initial thoughts have turned to another QE from the Fed when the FOMC meets at the end of this month. Central banks are cutting rates and increasing buying. China and the ECB cut rates over the last few days, the Bank of England announced it would increase purchases in its QE endeavor. With soft reports in almost every category of measurements over the last two months, and now the June employment report, the view of the Fed launching anther QE has increased. What can the QE do to increase employment? Not much, but in the end the Fed is the only body that can do anything even with very little ammo left in its arsenal. One analysts this morning offered the Fed should increase the cost to banks for excess reserves held by the Fed, possibly actually charging banks to hold reserves; the idea would be to force banks to increase lending. Sounds good but unlikely banks are going to lessen stringent lending requirements; it a chicken-egg thing; improving economic outlook would allow banks to lend more, however banks are not going to lead the charge. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -120, NASDAQ -22. The 10 yr at 9:30 still didn’t break through its resistance at 1.56%. Mortgage prices up 7/2 (.22 bp) frm yesterday’s close. A lot of talk this morning after another weaker than expected data point, that the Fed will launch another QE---but talk is just that. Action is where the rubber meets the road, and so far action in the bond market isn’t showing much optimism that the Fed will move to lower interest rates. The 10 yr note still isn’t able to crack the month long resistance at 1.56%. Mortgage markets are setting new records though, investors buying the higher interest rates instead of moving to safety into treasuries. There hasn’t been anything out of Europe officials since the summit meeting last week that would suggest any progress or anything that would increase the fear factor either. The ECB lowered rates and lowered collateral requirements for banks in the EU, a positive baby step, but a step nevertheless.

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Thursday, July 5, 2012

Mortgage Rates 7/5/12

Rates remain at all time lows ... For purchase or refinance - here are my rates for today (July 5th) ...

3.750% Conventional 30 Year Fixed, No Points
3.125% Conventional 15 Year Fixed, No Points
3.500% FHA 30 Year Fixed, No Points
3.625% FHA 30 Year Fixed, No Points (Loan >$417,000)
3.625% VA 30 Year Fixed, No Points
3.750% VA 30 Year Fixed, No Points (Loan >$417,000)

The Best Insurance for a Stolen Wallet

Follow Me On:

Bob Rosenbaum, Jr.
The Rosenbaum Lending Group
Access National Mortgage
Phone: (703) 879-5200
Cellular (202) 746-5937
NMLS: # 649782
RRosenbaum@AccessNational.com
www.MyTalentedLender.com

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The Best Insurance for a Stolen Wallet

It's frustrating enough when it happens.

Your wallet is stolen. Not only have you lost cash, you probably have a driver's license and credit cards to cancel and replace. Worst of all, you have the headache of identity theft to deal with.

The best insurance is to be prepared. Take a few minutes every 6 months to photocopy the front and back of everything in your wallet...and then store this information in a safe place in your home. You'll have to cancel your credit cards as soon as they are stolen, but if you don't have the actual cards with the 800 numbers in front of you, reaching the right department will be a difficult process. With the front and back of the card photocopied, you'll be able to cancel your cards within minutes.

Once you've cancelled your credit cards, ask each credit-reporting agency to place a fraud alert on your name. That way, people can't apply for new credit cards using your information.

The only thing left to do now is file a police report. Even if you have no hope of ever seeing your wallet again, file the report. This shows creditors that you are on top of the situation and are responsible about your loss.

You'll accomplish in minutes what could have taken hours or days...provided you invested the time up-front to get the contents of your wallet photocopied and filed in a secure place in your home.

Professional Market Snapshot - July 5th


Forwarded exclusively by:	Bob Rosenbaum Access National Mortgage Office: (703) 879-5200 Email: RRosenbaum@AccessNational.com website: www.MyTalentedLender.com
Big enough to compete, small enough to care.
Thursday, July 05, 2012
Treasuries and mortgages opened better this morning; at 7:00 the 10 yr note price was up 15/32 from Tuesday’s close with its yield at 1.59% -4 bp; mortgage prices not doing much in early activity. Overnight the ECB cut its base rate by 0.25% to 0.75%, it was generally expected but really doesn’t matter much in terms of the euro debt crisis. China also cut its rates for the second time in a month. Early activity had the US stock indexes about unchanged from Tuesday. China cut interest rates and allowed banks to offer bigger discounts on their lending costs, intensifying its efforts to reverse a slowdown. China’s one-year lending rate will fall by 31 basis points and the one-year deposit rate will drop by 25 basis points with effect from tomorrow, the People’s Bank of China said. Banks can offer loans of as much as 30% less than benchmark rates. The Bank of England restarted bond purchases two months after halting its expansion of stimulus as the deteriorating outlook spurred policy makers to ramp up efforts to kick start a recovery. The Monetary Policy Committee raised its asset-purchase target by 50 billion pounds ($78B) to 375 billion pounds and said the purchases will take four months to complete. China, the ECB and the BOE all made rate moves today; almost looks like a coordinated move but that’s not likely. Given the deteriorating global economy rate cuts were generally expected, the timing was the uncertainty. Weekly mortgage applications fell last week according to the MBA. The overall index declined 6.7%. The purchase index for the June 29 week is up 1.0% vs. two prior weeks of small declines. The refinance index is down 8.0 % reflecting a significant drop in applications for government loans. The 30-year rate, at 3.86% for conforming loans ($417,500 or less), is down 2 basis points in the week for a new record low. At 8:15 ADP, the payroll people, reported their view of non-farm private jobs in June. It was expected to show an increase of 105K private jobs; as reported ADP is saying private job growth was +176K, much higher than traders were thinking. After a stronger open in treasures prices declined frm +15/32 to +9/32 ahead of the next data point, weekly jobless claims. Interesting that the stock indexes didn’t jump much on the jobs data. Weekly claims at 8:30 expected -1K to 385K, was another better report than thought. Claims dropped 14K to 374K the lowest claims in a month. Last week’s claims followed the recent trend of revisions upward, from 386K to 388K---not much. Continuing claims increased to 3.306 mil frm 3.302 mil. The 4 week smoothing average on claims fell 1500 to 387,750. On that report treasuries gave up more of the early gains, up just 8/32 at 1.62% frm the low early at 1.59%. Keeping up the running activity this morning; at 9:30 the DJIA opened -60, NASDAQ -9; the 10 yr note +3/32 at 1.62% -1 bp, MBS 30 yr price unchanged at 105.09 (105.28 bp). So far this morning there has been a lot of price volatility in all markets; crude oil higher earlier, lower at 9:30, stock indexes lower early then higher then opening lower. The rate markets were strong at 8:00 with the 10 yr yield at 1.59% down 4 bp, mortgage prices higher early then back to unchanged at 9:30. The last data today; the June ISM services sector index; expected at 53.0 frm 53.7. The index declined to 52.1 the lowest reading this year. The figures follow July 2 data that showed manufacturing shrank for the first time in almost three years as the global economy weakened. The ISM manufacturing index fell to 49.7 in June from 53.5 a month earlier. Trade volume is light this morning with many taking the day off and ahead of tomorrow’s employment data. Prior to the ADP this morning the estimate was an increase of 100K jobs, 105K private jobs with the unemployment rate unchanged at 8.2%. For over a month now long term rates, including mortgage rates have been tied in a narrow range with no trend movement. The benchmark 10 yr has strong resistance at 1.56% and equally strong support at 1.68%; when the range is broken we would expect a swift move in the direction of the breakout.

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Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Mortgage Rates

Rates remain at all time lows ... For purchase or refinance - here are my rates for today ...

3.625% Conventional 30 Year Fixed, No Points
3.125% Conventional 15 Year Fixed, No Points
3.625% FHA 30 Year Fixed, No Points
3.750% FHA 30 Year Fixed, No Points (Loan >$417,000)
3.625% VA 30 Year Fixed, No Points
3.750% VA 30 Year Fixed, No Points (Loan >$417,000)

Market Snapshot


Forwarded exclusively by:	Bob Rosenbaum Access National Mortgage Office: (703) 879-5200 Email: RRosenbaum@AccessNational.com website: www.MyTalentedLender.com
Big enough to compete, small enough to care.
Tuesday, July 03, 2012
Treasuries and mortgages opened a little weaker this morning after the 10 yr and the MBS markets both tested their best levels in the last month yesterday. The very tight trading range that has been holding markets in check for the past month continues. The early trading in stock index futures was a little better but not much. Not a lot of fresh news to be concerned with today. Europe is still in the headlights but after the summit meeting last week there has been some quiet out of the region. Europe’s leaders bought a little bit of time in staving off a euro-area breakup after last week’s summit even as the region remains a long way from stabilization. At the summit there was agreement to loosen bailout rules, lay the foundations for a banking union and break the link between sovereign and banking debt through the direct recapitalization of lenders. After the meeting the US bond market saw less buying as a safety trade that has been a key reason US long term rates are so low. It is likely that the current pause in the crisis won’t last long though; Germany was pushed into the position of going along with other leaders in the euro region but it isn’t likely this will end well and without continued disagreements over austerity and possible stimulus incentives. The purchasing managers’ index in China rose to a three-month high of 56.7 in June from 55.2 in May. The result may be a sign that growth in the world’s second-largest economy may steady after leaders stepped up stimulus to counter a slowdown and maintained property curbs aimed at lowering home prices. The government cut interest rates last month for the first time since 2008 and has reduced banks’ reserve requirements three times since November. On Sunday China’s official manufacturing PMI in June was 50.2, signaling a slower expansion for a second month, according to a separate report. In the US the June ISM services sector index will be released on Thursday. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -12, NASDAQ +0.16; the 10 yr note 1.60% +1 bp and mortgage prices unchanged from yesterday’s closes. Thursday the ECB meets with some thinking the bank will lower interest rates. Crude oil is headed higher today as supplies decline with the Iran embargo. At 10:00 May factory orders, the only data today, was better than expected; +0.7% with markets looking for +0.4%. The stock indexes gained a little on the better orders but trade is slow and will likely remain thatr way. The stock market will close at 1:00 this afternoon and the bond and mortgage markets close at 2:00 pm. Both the 10 yr note and 30 yr MBSs continue to find support at their 20 day averages and remain in their tight ranges. We don’t want to call this a bull market in the bond market anymore; the reality is it is neutral. Unable to establish any trend over the last month; traders are taking advantage of buying on dips on prices, selling on rallies as long as the tight range continues. Friday the June employment report is due with general expectations that it will be a weak one; when it comes to employment reports talk is just that, the report is usually a surprise one way or the other. Given the recent data confirming a slowdown the report shouldn’t be a surprise on more jobs,

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Monday, July 2, 2012

Weekly Preview


Forwarded exclusively by:	Bob Rosenbaum Access National Mortgage Office: (703) 879-5200 Email: RRosenbaum@AccessNational.com website: www.MyTalentedLender.com
Big enough to compete, small enough to care.
Monday, July 02, 2012
This Week; the 4^th falls in the middle of the week. Trading volumes should be thinner than usual with many taking a few days off. There are a number of key measurements this week; both June ISM reports (manufacturing on Monday and services on Thursday), weekly claims on Thursday and the June employment data on Friday. The early forecast for the employment report, non-farm payrolls +100K and non-farm private jobs +105K with the unemployment rate unchanged at 8.2%. Europe’s economy is showing increasing signs of weakness after stalling in the first quarter as the worsening fiscal crisis erodes the confidence of executives and consumers. The gauge of euro-region manufacturing held at 45.1 in May, London-based Markit Economics said today in a final estimate. That compares with an initial estimate of 44.8. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The European Central Bank’s governing council gathers in Frankfurt on Thursday with speculation officials will lower their benchmark interest rate by at least 25 points to a record low of 0.75% as the economy hovers near recession. The US 10 yr note and 30 yr mortgage rates continue to trade in their respective narrow ranges; both are holding within five week ranges but there is an increasing belief Europe won’t drive safety moves into US treasuries as strongly as the last eight months. One of key reasons US rates have stayed low is due to investors parking money in the safest places as Europe wrestles with how to save banks and cut spending.

To unsubscribe from TBWS Rate Alert e-mails, please click here. Please do not reply directly to this e-mail. TBWS Rate Alert will not receive any reply message. For questions or comments, visit our Forums or Contact Support via SupportTeam@ratealert.com.