10 Year Comparison of ARM Indexes

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Bob Rosenbaum, Jr. 1st Portfolio Lending Corp. The Rosenbaum Lending Group Phone: (703) 879-5200 Cellular (703) 608-1110 NMLS: # 649782 Bob@MyTalentedLender.com www.MyTalentedLender.com

ARM Indexes: A 10-Year Comparison

All loans subject to credit approval and property appraisal. Programs, rates, and terms subject to change without notice. For ARM loans, rate may increase after settlement. Prequalification is not a commitment to lend, a condition of loan approval, or an application for credit. Pre-approvals will result in a loan decision subject to conditions. Consult a tax advisor regarding the deductibility of interest.-- an affiliate of National City Bank © 2013 Vantage Production, LLC. All rights reserved.

Rates continue to rise ...

Forwarded exclusively by:	Bob Rosenbaum The Rosenbaum Lending Group Office: (703) 879-5200 Email: Bob@MyTalentedLender.com website: www.MyTalentedLender.com NMLS#: 649782
Monday, December 09, 2013
What happened last week? Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -70 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused 30 year fixed rates to move higher for the third consecutive week. We saw our best rates on Monday and our worst rates on Friday morning.  Last week was all about jobs and the labor picture.  And the picture certainly brightened.  With ADP Private Payrolls, Initial Weekly Jobless Claims and the Non-Farm Payroll report all coming in better than market expectations.  Friday's Non-Farm Payroll Report came in at 203K vs market expectations of only 180K.  It marked the second straight reading of 200K or more.  The Unemployment Rate fell from 7.3% to 7.0%. Why do more people going back to work make mortgage rates go up?  Mortgage rates have been artificially too low for two primary reasons.  First, the Federal Reserve purchases $85 billion of Treasuries and MBS each month which creates higher than normal demand for mortgage bonds which in return pushes down mortgage rates..  The Fed has made it very clear that they will begin to lower that amount of monthly purchases once the labor market improves enough.  Most economist are now projecting that the Fed will begin to "taper" in the first quarter of 2014.  During this summer (when rates were lower) it was projected that the Fed would begin to taper in the second  half of 2014. Secondly, an improvement in the labor sector means economic growth and growth leads to inflation.  While there is certainly no  threat of inflation in the short term, bond holders look long-term and any inflationary threat is always negative for bonds and therefore bad for mortgage rates.
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Stocks are UP ... Expect to see rates rise slowly over time ...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a milestone yesterday closing above 16,000 for the time time in its 128 year history finishing at 16,009.99. Stock prices have been gradually improving in the past year fueled by an improving economy, positive corporate earnings and low interest rates due to the Federal Reserve's easy-money monetary policy. The index is made up of thirty large publicly owned companies based in the U.S. 

The Labor Department reported this morning in its Regional and State Unemployment Summary that unemployment rates were little changed in October. Twenty-eight states had unemployment rate decreases from September, 11 states and the District of Columbia had increases and 11 states had no change. The national unemployment rate was 7.3% in October and is 0.6 percentage points lower than in October 2012.

Online Real Estate company Zillow reported on Thursday that negative equity rates fell at their fastest pace ever in the third quarter, plunging by 21% of all homeowners with a mortgage. There are 10.8 million homeowners underwater, owing more than the home is worth, down 4.9 million from the peak in the first quarter of 2012.

Industrial Production ...

Industrial production (IP) is now less than 1% below where it was before the start of the Great Recession. The decline in production was 17%, and so far it's taken us 70 months to almost recover. By comparison, it took 50 months to return IP to where it was before the 2000 recession and 89 months to recover after the Depression, when the decline in production was a staggering 54%. © 2013, Graphs & Laughs

Shutdown is over - Now what?

Forwarded exclusively by:	Bob Rosenbaum The Rosenbaum Lending Group Office: (703) 879-5200 Email: Bob@MyTalentedLender.com website: www.MyTalentedLender.com NMLS#: 649782
Monday, October 21, 2013
What happens to rates now that the government shutdown is over and the debt crisis has been averted? Now that Washington D.C. has gotten our government up and running again, and the fear of defaulting on our debt has been pushed off until after the new year, where does that leave mortgage interest rates? 1)  Talk of tapering has all but disappeared    In September, the markets were driven on speculation of Fed tapering back the purchases of Treasuries and MBS that are part of QE3.  The fear of tapering helped to drive interest rates up, with concern that actual tapering would lead to even further mortgage rate increases.  However, the government shutdown is expected to have a strong slowdown effect on our economic recovery, which has pushed back all talk of tapering.  Added to that is the transition next year of Fed Chairman from Ben Bernanke to Janet Yellen, which will also delay talk of tapering.  This is good for mortgage interest rates.  2) There will be a flood of economic data releases    Expect intraday volatility as many missed economic reports will be released now that the respective government departments are back to work.  Although September data points are not likely to be seen as affected by the shutdown, the data isn't likely to garner as much credibility as usual with traders as the markets try to assess how serious the shutdown's impact was on consumers and future job growth.  This could cause volatility with mortgage interest rates. 3) The government shutdown is expected to stunt the economy     Many economists feel that the government shutdown was bad for the economic recovery.  Just how bad though has not been calculated yet.  Regardless, when the economy stumbles, that always bodes well for MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) and the bond market in general.  Until we see that the economic recovery is back on track, it relieves pressure from mortgage rates.  This is good for mortgage interest rates.      Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap Mortgage Rates Currently Trending: LOWER Last week saw rates improve an average of .250%, depending on the lender, as MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) pricing improved on news of the government shutdown being lifted and the debt crisis being averted.  They did run out of steam however as they approached the 102.00 Resistance Level, meaning that our march to lower rates may have run out of steam.  We have been trading within the same very tight trading channel since the Fed announcement not to taper on September 18th.      This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast Mortgage Rates Forecast: NEUTRAL, but high threat of volatility This week we will be dealing with MBS pressing up against the 102.00 Resistance Level, as well as the release of economic data that was not released due to the government shutdown.  There is no reason for us to see a large increase in rates, but we may see an increase of .125% to .250% this week if the 102.00 Resistance Level holds.  However, if we can convincingly break above this level, we may find better interest rates on the other side.      BOTTOM LINE: There is risk to floating right now, but also potential reward. The best course of action is to stay in contact with your Mortgage Loan Professional to watch the market in real time to stay a step ahead of lender reprices and market trends to protect your mortgage rate.   RateAlert’s Most Trusted Mortgage Lending Professionals:  Loan Professions that subscribe to RateAlert Executive services have the training and market knowledge at their fingertips, along with live trading data during market hours to expertly help navigate the difficult and often times confusing process of understanding rate movements and which factors may cause volatility when considering whether or not to lock.  If you’d like to learn more about what things to consider when timing the market in an effort to obtain the best interest rates, don’t hesitate to contact the person who sent you this commentary. This commentary has been sent to you by the Mortgage Loan Originator (MLO) above because they thought you may find it interesting or helpful. The views and opinions offered do not necessarily represent the views of your MLO. Please contact them with any questions or to find out more about the information listed herein and how to work with them
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Day 16! Good grief ...

The government shutdown enters its 16th day, but a deal is rumored to be struck this afternoon to reopen the government and to raise the debt ceiling. The House of Representatives will be meeting at 10:00am ET today while the Senate is set to meet at 12:00pm ET. The deadline for the debt ceiling issue is at the stroke of midnight tonight eastern time.

Late yesterday, credit rating agency Fitch placed the U.S. debt on negative watch, but did maintain its AAA rating. The reason behind the move was the "failure to raise the federal debt ceiling in a timely manner before the Treasury exhausts extraordinary measures."

Over in housing news, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported today that its Housing Market Index fell to 55 in October versus the 57 expected as home loan rates rose along with the government shutdown providing uncertainty. Any readings over 50 shows optimism and the NAHB said that it is still seeing signs of pent-up demand in many markets across the country.

Are you "On The Fence"?

Are you considering buying or refinancing?  Trying to "time" the market?  It's time to hop off that fence and hop into your new home (loan) ...

Currently the Fed is the only major buyer of mortgages on the secondary market.  Given that the Fed has made it very clear that they will begin tapering their purchases in the coming months - we expect mortgage rates to rise.  Likely this won't happen until 2014 - but 2014 is almost here!  

Consider this - an individual earning $100,000 per year, with $700/month in consumer debt, buying a home with $4,000 per year in taxes ... 

Today they would qualify for a maximum conventional loan of $536,000 @ 4.25%.  That same person would qualify for $465,000 at 5.5% - and $417,000 at 6.5% (rates were in the mid 6's in late 2008 - that's not all that long ago!). 

Our Federal Government cannot stave off inflation forever ... If you lock in with us and rates go up - you're protected.  If rates should drop by 1/4% or more in the 15 day window prior to closing - you may float down to the lower rate, plus 1/8%, at no charge.  This applies to both purchases and refinances!  

If you have a FHA Loan - we may be able to refinance you and lower or eliminate your mortgage insurance.  If you have a VA loan above 4.5% - we can do a streamline refi and save you money.  If you're in a conventional loan - consider refinancing to a 15 year loan and save 10's of thousands in interest.  

If you're a buyer - ask us about how to finance home improvements with your home purchase ... we have several options depending on your situation.  

As always - we thank you for your referrals and honor the trust you place in us.

Government Employees / VA and FHA ... We are still closing loans ...

Government Shutdown and its impact to Loan Originations

The government shutdown has adversely affected two areas of mortgage originations across the industry.  Tax transcripts are not available for any borrowers and in many cases, it isn't possible to obtain a verbal verification of employment for government employees.

1^st Portfolio Lending’s Solution

While we wait for the political stalemate to end, we recognize the adverse effect not being able to obtain tax transcripts and verbal VOEs could have on our borrowers.  Fortunately, 1st Portfolio is doing business as usual and will hold the loan until the Government gets back to work.  

For Conforming, FHA, and VA loans eligible for sale to 1^st Portfolio, we will accept one year’s tax returns in lieu of transcripts, if our receipt of transcripts is delayed due to the shutdown.  We still will rely upon transcripts if they are available.  For Verbal Verification Of Employment, all attempts will be made to obtain them for government employees, but if we are unable to confirm employment due to the shutdown, we will not delay or cancel settlement.

We value our clients and appreciate the trust you place in us.  Call us today for help with your next mortgage.

Robert F. Rosenbaum, Jr. 
The Rosenbaum Lending Group
1st Portfolio Lending Corp.
8300 Boone Blvd., Ste 200

Vienna, VA 22182
(703) 879-5200  Office
(703) 608-1110  Cellular
(703) 891-9815  Direct Fax
RRosenbaum@FirstPortfolio.com
http://www.MyTalentedLender.com
NMLS License: 649782
Notary Public

Kuntri Yonkwan

Loan Processor

(571) 327-2152 Office

(703) 564-9121 Fax

kyonkwan@firstphc.com

Please click HERE for our secure online application. 

It’s a good life!

Last week in review

Forwarded exclusively by:	Bob Rosenbaum The Rosenbaum Lending Group Office: (703) 879-5200 Email: Bob@MyTalentedLender.com website: www.MyTalentedLender.com NMLS#: 649782
Monday, September 23, 2013
What Happened to Rates Last Week? Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +130 basis points from last Friday's close which caused 30 year fixed rates to move to their lowest levels in the past 30 days. Mortgage backed securities were trading in a very narrow range until Wednesday's Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC). And they shocked bond traders by electing not to taper at that meeting.  While, our own internal survey showed that only 20% of over 4,000 originators polled expected a taper announcement, over 80% of bond traders and hedging operators did expect a taper announcement.  So, the fact that they made no taper announcement was unexpected by traders and a shock to the system.  As a result - MBS shot up just over +80 BPS just after the FOMC statement was released and then another +25BPS after Bernanke's press conference. Keep in mind that the Fed does not have to wait until their next meeting in December to take action.  The made it very clear that it is already part of their program - that they can change the size and nature of their asset purchase program ANY time that they want.  This has traders focused in on any economic news that would give the Fed enough ammunition to adjust their monthly bond purchases this year.  And this week we have some very big economic reports such as GDP, Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence.  All of which will be very closely watched by traders.
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Forwarded exclusively by:	Bob Rosenbaum The Rosenbaum Lending Group Office: (703) 879-5200 Email: Bob@MyTalentedLender.com website: www.MyTalentedLender.com NMLS#: 649782
Friday, September 20, 2013
What happened yesterday? Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -11 basis points from Wednesday's close which caused 30 year fixed rates to move slightly higher. Initial Jobless Claims were much lighter than expected and the prior period was not revised upward as much as the market expected.  But traders largely ignored this report because the numbers are still tainted by the potential under reporting by two states. Existing Home Sales surprised to the upside coming in at 5.48 million units vs. market expectations of 5.25 million units.  Manufacturing in the Philly district was stronger than expected and the Leading Economic Indicators beat expectations.  The combined impact of these three reports was to pressure MBS lower. The stock market (DOW -40.39) and the MBS market (FNMA 4.0 -11BPS) once again moved in the same direction as they both sold off.
Big enough to compete, small enough to care. To unsubscribe from TBWS Rate Alert e-mails, please click here. Please do not reply directly to this e-mail. TBWS Rate Alert will not receive any reply message. For questions or comments, visit our Forums or Contact Support via SupportTeam@ratealert.com.

Refi?

Yep - I said "Refi" ... If you missed the boat earlier - you might be in luck. 

Mortgage Backed Securities are up on the Fed's news that they will not begin tapering at this time.  

Your best bet for refinance is to consider going from a 30 to a 15 year note.  That will get you the most bang for your buck.  

If you're in a VA loan - call me today about lowering your rate/payment with a Streamline Refinance (no income, no assets!).

Bring it on!  I'm ready to help as many people as I can.  

Robert F. Rosenbaum, Jr. 

The Rosenbaum Lending Group
1st Portfolio Lending Corp.
8300 Boone Blvd., Ste 200

Vienna, VA 22182
(703) 879-5200  Office
(703) 608-1110  Cellular
(703) 891-9815  Direct Fax
RRosenbaum@FirstPortfolio.com
http://www.MyTalentedLender.com 
NMLS License: 649782
Notary Public

Kuntri Yonkwan

Loan Processor

(571) 327-2152 Office

(703) 564-9121 Fax

kyonkwan@firstphc.com

Please click HERE for our secure online application. 

It’s a good life!

The Fed meets today ...

After showing negative numbers in the past month or so, the Mortgage bankers Association reported that its Market Composite Index, a measure of total loan application volume, rose by 11.2% in the latest survey. The refinance index jumped by 18% while the purchase index rose by 3%. The recent rise in home loan rates is one of the main reasons for the recent drop off in applications.

Over in housing news, the Commerce Department reported that Housing Starts rose by 0.9% from July to August to an annual rate of 891,000 units. That was below the 910,000 that was expected - July was revised lower to 883,000 from 896,000. Building Permits, a sign of future construction, fell by 3.8% to 918,000 units, below the 943,000 expected. However, there was a surge in single-family Permits, a sign that the housing recovery is continuing.

The Federal Reserve's long awaited monetary policy statement will be released this afternoon at 2:00pm ET. There is no chance of the Fed raising the benchmark Fed Funds Rate, currently at 0.25%. However, the Fed can start to ease back on the $85 billion per month in Bond purchases. The Fed could announce a $10 billion to $15 billion reduction. The statement will be accompanied by the Fed's Economic Projections (forecasts) and a press conference with Fed Chairman Bernanke will follow at 2:30pm ET.

Market update - rates rise

Forwarded exclusively by:	Bob Rosenbaum The Rosenbaum Lending Group Office: (703) 879-5200 Email: Bob@MyTalentedLender.com website: www.MyTalentedLender.com NMLS#: 649782
Wednesday, September 04, 2013
What happened yesterday? Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -35 basis points from Friday's close which caused 30 year fixed rates to move upward.  In fact, yesterday's sell off completely erased all of the prior week's improvement. MBS sold off immediately after the release of the ISM Manufacturing data.  The market was expecting a reading of 54.0 and it came in at 55.7. A reading above 50 shows economic expansion (which is negative for your pricing) As a result, the benchmark FNMA 4.0 September coupon "tanked" to their worst levels of the day of -63BPS at 10:36EDT. Construction Spending was also better than market expectations (0.6% vs 0.3%) which was also negative for your pricing. But MBS climbed off of their bottom and started to regain some (but not all) of their early morning losses, rising from -63BPS to -39BPS on news that the Republican House Leader would support any action by President Obama against Syria.  This temporarily gave some momentum to the speculation that Obama will get the support he needs from Congress and then launch a strike against Syria.
Big enough to compete, small enough to care.

Prices rise but not for long as interest rates climb ...

Home sales, prices rise – but for how long?

Sales of existing homes rose in July to their highest level in three years, with year-over-year prices again showing double-digit increases.

The number of sales was 6.5% above June and 17.2% above the level in July 2012. If sales continue at the same pace, that would equal 5.39 million homes sold annually, according to figures from the National Association of Realtors.

Rising interest rates as well as rising prices are expected to tamp down both prices and the number of sales in coming months, as homes get less affordable. The shortage of homes for sale, particularly for first-time buyers, continues in many communities, too.

Post continues below

"Mortgage interest rates are at the highest level in two years, pushing some buyers off the sidelines," Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist, said in a news release. "The initial rise in interest rates provided strong incentive for closing deals. However, further rate increases will diminish the pool of eligible buyers."

The national median home price, including single-family and condos, was $213,500. That’s 13.7%  above the national median price a year ago and only 7.3% below the peak of $230,400 in July 2006.

• Foreign investors lose interest as home prices rise

The number of homes for sale increased 5.6% from June, to 2.28 million, which is a 5.1-month supply at the current rate of sales. The number of homes for sale is 5% less than a year ago.

Distressed homes continued to make up a smaller percentage of sales, one of the factors that is driving up median prices, since foreclosures and short sales sell at a discount. In July, distressed homes were 15% of sales, down from 24% a year ago.

• New data show uneven pace of housing recovery

First-time buyers continued to play a smaller role in the market than they do in normal times, accounting for only 29% of sales, down from 34% a year ago. Investors made 16% of purchases, down from a peak of 22% in February.

All-cash sales continued to be a strong factor, making up 31% of the deals, up from 27% a year ago.

Looking at the numbers by region:

• Northeast: Sales up 20.3% from July 2012, median price up 6.7%.

• Midwest: Sales up 20.8% from July 2012, median price up 9.5%.

• South: Sales up 16.6% from July 2012, median price up 13.6%.

• West: Sales up 13.2% from July 2012,  median price up 19.2%.

  
  

  By Teresa at MSN Real Estate

The week ahead ...

Forwarded exclusively by:	Bob Rosenbaum The Rosenbaum Lending Group Office: (703) 879-5200 Email: Bob@MyTalentedLender.com website: www.MyTalentedLender.com NMLS#: 649782
Monday, August 12, 2013
What Happened Last Week Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +0 basis points from last Friday's close which caused 30 year fixed rates to move sideways. So, for the past two weeks, MBS have moved only +8BPS which have kept mortgage rates fairly steady. Mortgage backed securities traded in a tight range and we avoided the major swings in pricing that we had in the prior week. We had light week in terms of the number of economic releases that hit the market and reports that were released were a mixed-bag. ISM Services came in much stronger than expected (56.0 vs est of 53.0) but Wholesale Inventories disappointed (-0.2% vs est of +0.2%). Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were very close to market expectations (333K vs est of 336K). So, the economic data didn't really drive our pricing last week. Instead it was Treasury auctions and Fed speak that were the major force in bond trades. We had three major U.S. Treasury auctions with the market focusing on the 10 year note and 30 year bond. Last week was all about the Fed and jobs. Both the 10 year and 30 year auctions came off weaker than their recent averages as measured by their bid-to-cover ratio but were still strong enough to keep MBS pricing up. Talking Feds: We had six different speeches by different Federal Reserve members, but few of them were voting members. Essentially, they all said the same thing: 1) the Fed needs to cut back their monthly bond purchases of Treasuries and mortgage backed securities, 2) it will most likely happen in 2013, 3) they need to see more economic improvement from the second half of this year before they move to taper and 4) they would not give a specific date for the first taper. The fact that there was no specific date for the Fed to begin tapering kept MBS at an elevated level which kept rates low. What's on the agenda for this week? Mortgage Rates Currently Trending: NEUTRAL We have a big week for economic data...but it won't start until tomorrow. MBS are moving upward this morning on speculation over the German GDP data due out this week. We only have one economic report this afternoon with our U.S. Treasury budget, and we do not have any major U.S. Treasury auctions this week. The rest of the week is packed with data about inflation levels (PPI and CPI) - these are most likely going to continue to show very tame inflation levels on a month-over-month basis. Tuesday's Retail Sales report and Friday's Consumer Sentiment Index will be the biggest reports of the week. Bottom Line: There may be some benefit to floating your interest rate and watching the market carefully. However, this is really a case by case decision and should be discussed with your Mortgage Professional. We are testing some technical resistance levels, and if we break above them it could benefit mortgage rates. If we bounce off of them though it could lead to rate deterioration very quickly. Monitor real time market data with your Mortgage Professional to stay a step ahead of lender reprices and to cash in on market gains that help mortgage rates.                                RateAlert’s Most Trusted Mortgage Lending Professionals: Loan Professions that subscribe to RateAlert Executive services have the training and market knowledge at their fingertips, along with live trading data during market hours to expertly help navigate the difficult and often times confusing process of understanding rate movements and which factors may cause volatility when considering whether or not to lock. If you’d like to learn more about what things to consider when timing the market in an effort to obtain the best interest rates, don’t hesitate to contact the person who sent you this commentary.
Big enough to compete, small enough to care.