Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Cash/Shiller Home Price Index +NEWS

Follow Me On:      

Bob Rosenbaum, Jr.
1st Portfolio Lending Corp.
The Rosenbaum Lending Group
Phone: (703) 879-5200
Cellular (703) 608-1110
NMLS:# 649782

Featured Chart for Wednesday, July 31th

The Case/Shiller 20-city Composite Home Price Index rose 12.2% from May of 2012 to May of 2013 and was the largest annual increase since March 2006.

© 2013 Vantage Production, LLC. All rights reserved.

17 Money-Saving Back To School Shopping Tips

Follow Me On:      

Bob Rosenbaum, Jr.
1st Portfolio Lending Corp.
The Rosenbaum Lending Group
Phone: (703) 879-5200
Cellular (703) 608-1110
NMLS: # 649782

17 Money-Saving Back To School Shopping Tips
Without a plan, back-to-school shopping can become an expensive hassle. Here is a checklist that will help keep your family on time, on task, and on budget:

  1. Stick to the teacher's list of supplies
  2. Shop at home first; you may already own most items
  3. Wait until tax-free holidays
  4. Buy plain lunch-boxes and let kids decorate
  5. Put names on everything
  6. Clip coupons from Sunday circulars
  7. Shop discount stores first
  8. Don't forget about grocery store sales
  9. Follow stores' social media accounts for sale alerts
  10. Buy in bulk and split among multiple families
  1. Vintage is big, try thrift shops
  2. If not vintage, go discount, such as TJ Maxx, Marshall's, Nordstrom Rack
  3. If not discount, try, and
  4. Make alterations to old clothes: Hem pants, dye shirts, sew on cool patches
  5. Organize or find a clothing swap with other moms in your area
  6. Old Navy, Gap Kids, and The Children's Place refund the difference on new sale items within 14 days
  7. Use Craigslist to sell stuff for extra cash

© 2013 Vantage Production, LLC. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Market is CRA CRA today ...

We opened +100bps and then fell 10 minutes later to +9bps ... And it has been up and down like that all day.  Pricing has been suspended and open and suspended again ... Thankfully, all of my clients are locked - are you?
Housing data was plentiful today with both good news and not so good news. Home prices continue to move higher as evidenced by the 12.2% year-over-year gain in the Case/Shiller 20-city Composite Home Price Index. It was the biggest annual gain since March of 2006. From April to May, prices rose 2.4% for the 20-city index.
Over in the foreclosure front, Corelogic reports that completed foreclosures dropped by nearly 20% from June of 2012 (68,000) to June of 2013 (55,000). The 55,000 in June was slightly higher than the 53,000 recorded in May. Since the beginning of this year, foreclosure inventories have declined by 14%. A completed foreclosure occurs when a property is auctioned and results in the purchase of the home at auction by either a third party, such as an investor, or by the lender.
The homeownership rate in the U.S. has now fallen back to levels not seen in two decades and is well below its record high of 69.2% hit back in 2004, currently at 65.1%. During the recent housing crisis, more than 7 million Americans were ripped from their homes after the bubble burst and busted. The rate is expected to fall to 64% due to foreclosures as people enter the rental markets.

Monday, July 29, 2013

Last week and the week ahead ...

Forwarded exclusively by:
Bob Rosenbaum
The Rosenbaum Lending Group
Office: (703) 879-5200
NMLS#: 649782
Profile Photo
Monday, July 29, 2013
Pending Home Sales Climb 10.9%
Pending Home Sales climbed 10.9% from this time last year according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  Pending Home Sales are homes that have active sales contracts but have not yet closed.
On a month-over-month basis, sales pulled back -0.4 percent.  This is actually positive news as the market was expected a drop of over 1.00% due to higher mortgage rates during this term.  The fact that the housing market is able to absorb the slight uptick in mortgage rates is good news.
Based on year-to-date sales activity, and stable contract signings expected for the balance of the year, NAR projects existing-home sales to rise more than 8 percent in 2013.  Inventory shortages will lead the median price to rise by nearly 11 percent this year.


Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap
Last week mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -49  basis points from last Friday's close which caused 30 year fixed rates to move higher.  This ended the bond rally that had lasted for the two weeks prior to last week.
As we have discussed, MBS sell off when there is positive economic news.  We certainly could have sold off even more given last week's data with Durable Goods Orders much stronger than expected (4.2 vs 0.5) and the Consumer Sentiment Index rising from 84.1 to 85.1.  Existing Home Sales missed the market expectations but was still robust.  New Home Sales enjoyed some nice gains in terms of unit sales and price increases.
Demand for our 7 year Treasury auction saw some decent demand but our 5 year and 2 year auctions saw decreased demand.
MBS would have lost more ground (even higher rates for you) if it weren't for a WSJ article that speculated that the Fed would change their language at this week's FOMC meeting to calm the markets that they would not be increasing their rates for a long time.  We agree.  They will certainly leave their Fed Funds rate alone but they will eventually have to start to pull back on bond purchases and those bond purchases are what impacts your mortgage rates...not their Fed Fund rate.

This Week's Mortgage Rates Forecast
Mortgage Rates Currently Trending: HIGHER
Expect much more volatility this week as traders watch the plethora of economic data that is released this week - and all of it with the potential to move the markets.  Week to week now, the common theme seems to be the markets watching to see what the Fed may do about withdrawing/tapering QE3.  Strong news bodes well for the growth of the economy but may hasten the Fed's move out of QE3; weaker news keeps the Fed from tapering but emphasizes the weaknes in the economy.  An ugly catch-22 no matter how you look at it.

BOTTOM LINE:  It's a good time to have an interest rate lock/float conversation with your Mortgage Professional.  Some scenarios make it easy to advise to lock, others make it more of a time to float.  Talk with your Most Trusted Mortgage Professional to decide what options are available and what actions may be right for you.  Whatever you decide, be prepared for a roller coaster week full of volatility.  Be sure to stay tuned to live market data with your Mortgage Professional to stay a step ahead of lender reprices and to cash in on market gains that help mortgage rates. Be prepared for any negative market performance that could push mortgage rates higher.


RateAlert’s Most Trusted Mortgage Lending Professionals:
Loan Professions that subscribe to RateAlert Executive services have the training and market knowledge at their fingertips, along with live trading data during market hours to expertly help navigate the difficult and often times confusing process of understanding rate movements and which factors may cause volatility when considering whether or not to lock. If you’d like to learn more about what things to consider when timing the market in an effort to obtain the best interest rates, don’t hesitate to contact the person who sent you this commentary.

This commentary has been sent to you by the Mortgage Loan Originator (MLO) above because they thought you may find it interesting or helpful. The views and opinions offered do not necessarily represent the views of your MLO. Please contact them with any questions or to find out more about the information listed herein and how to work with them

Big enough to compete, small enough to care.
To unsubscribe from TBWS Rate Alert e-mails, please click here.
Please do not reply directly to this e-mail. TBWS Rate Alert will not receive any reply message.
For questions or comments, visit our Forums or Contact Support via
Equal Home Opportunity

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Home Prices Increase ...

Consumer bellwether United Parcel Service (UPS) reported that second quarter profits declined by 4% as customers moved to lower price shipping companies. Revenues came in at $13.51 billion versus the $13.59 billion expected. UPS is considered a bellwether along with FedEx due to the high volume and large assortment of goods they move around the globe.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported today that housing prices rose 7.3% in the 12 months ended in May as buyers vied for a smaller amount of listings as inventories have declined. In addition, there was a 0.7% rise from April to May. The FHFA Housing Price Index measures transactions for single-family properties that are financed through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The closely watched S&P 500 Stock Index hit yet another closing record high (1,675) yesterday and can be attributed in part to the easy money policies from the Federal Reserve (the Fed). The Fed has been purchasing $85 billion a month in Treasury Securities and Mortgage Backed Securities in an effort to stimulate the economy and to ensure job growth.
There were no economic reports released today and the rest of the week's calendar is on the light side with readings on New Home Sales due out tomorrow and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday.

Friday, July 19, 2013

Housing Starts

Follow Me On:      

Bob Rosenbaum, Jr.
1st Portfolio Lending Corp.
The Rosenbaum Lending Group
Phone: (703) 879-5200
Cellular (703) 608-1110
NMLS:# 649782

Featured Chart for Friday, July 19th

Housing Starts plunged by nearly 10% in June from May to the lowest level in a year to 836K units annualized as home loan rates rose from historic lows.

© 2013 Vantage Production, LLC. All rights reserved.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Unemployment down, Stocks up, Mortgage Rates push HIGHER

The Labor Department reported this morning that Americans filing for first time unemployment insurance fell in the latest week, a signal that the jobs market continues to make some headway. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell by 24,000 in the latest week to 334,000 and below the 348,000 that was expected. However, the number could be distorted by seasonal factors due to annual summer factory closings that occur each year.
Over in the manufacturing sector, the Philadelphia Fed Index showed that its July business outlook signaled that the regions manufacturing conditions improved in July, surging to 19.8 from the June reading of 12.5. Within the report the employment component came in at 7.7, the first positive reading in four months.
Stocks continue to hit record high levels this week as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reaffirmed that the Fed's stimulus program to boost the economy will continue and there is no preset course for raising interest rates or reducing the monthly massive Bond buying program. The hit Dow 15,576 and the S&P 500 is at 1,690, both in record territory today aided by the better than expected economic data.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Gas prices up - Twinkies are back - Market is stable (so far)

Higher gasoline prices and a surge in sales of automobiles led Retail Sales higher in June, but the gains were offset by a decline in home improvement stores, bars and restaurants and department stores. Retail Sales rose by 0.4%, lower than the 0.7% expected and down from the 0.5% gain in May. Retail Sales account for 30% of consumer spending. When stripping out autos, sales were unchanged last month.
Manufacturing activity in the New York State region rose in early July as the index rose to 9.46 from 7.8 in June and above the 3.6 expected. However, within the report it showed that the employment component indicated little positive momentum.
In corporate earnings news, Citigroup reported that earnings jumped 42% in the second quarter as the banking giant cut costs and expanded its international presence. The bank earned $1.34 a share, exceeding the $1.19 that was expected and up from the $1 a share in the same quarter last year.
On the lighter side, Twinkies have made their long awaited return today to store shelves after being off the market for about a year. The maker of the long time treat, Hostess, went bankrupt last year due to problems with management and a stand-off with its second biggest union. Twinkies have made their new debut to Wal-Mart to 3,000 of the retail giant's stores on Sunday.

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Rates rise, but remain at historic lows ...

Rates have risen - but remain at historic lows.  See the chart below from Freddie Mac ...

Home price rose 12.2% from May 2012 to May 2013. It is expected that employers added 166,000 jobs in June. Auto sales sales surge in June.

The housing sector continues to receive good news as CoreLogic reported this morning that home prices, including distressed sales, rose by 12.2% in May of 2013 compared to May 2012. This was the largest annual increase since February 2006 fueled by tight inventories and historically low home loan rates. In addition, from April to May, prices increased nearly 3%. However, prices are still 20.4% below the April 2006 peak.
There are no economic reports due for release today ahead of the Independence Day holiday, where all capital markets in the U.S. will be closed. Friday morning brings the closely watched monthly government jobs report for June where it is expected that employers added 166K new jobs in June while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 7.6%. For 2013, there has been an average of nearly 190,000 new jobs created per month, so the expected 166,000 is below that level. To put the current jobs environment in perspective, in 2009, at the height of the recession, there was an average of 421,000 jobs lost each month.
The auto industry has made a big comeback in recent years after General Motors (GM) and Chrysler were bailed out by the U.S. and Canadian governments. June sales were reported today and the numbers revealed that Ford saw sales gains of 13% in June, GM gained 6% while Chrysler saw a sales jump of 8%. The rise in sales is attributed towards rising consumer confidence and easier credit.