The week ahead ...

Forwarded exclusively by:	Bob Rosenbaum The Rosenbaum Lending Group Office: (703) 879-5200 Email: Bob@MyTalentedLender.com website: www.MyTalentedLender.com NMLS#: 649782
Monday, August 12, 2013
What Happened Last Week Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +0 basis points from last Friday's close which caused 30 year fixed rates to move sideways. So, for the past two weeks, MBS have moved only +8BPS which have kept mortgage rates fairly steady. Mortgage backed securities traded in a tight range and we avoided the major swings in pricing that we had in the prior week. We had light week in terms of the number of economic releases that hit the market and reports that were released were a mixed-bag. ISM Services came in much stronger than expected (56.0 vs est of 53.0) but Wholesale Inventories disappointed (-0.2% vs est of +0.2%). Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were very close to market expectations (333K vs est of 336K). So, the economic data didn't really drive our pricing last week. Instead it was Treasury auctions and Fed speak that were the major force in bond trades. We had three major U.S. Treasury auctions with the market focusing on the 10 year note and 30 year bond. Last week was all about the Fed and jobs. Both the 10 year and 30 year auctions came off weaker than their recent averages as measured by their bid-to-cover ratio but were still strong enough to keep MBS pricing up. Talking Feds: We had six different speeches by different Federal Reserve members, but few of them were voting members. Essentially, they all said the same thing: 1) the Fed needs to cut back their monthly bond purchases of Treasuries and mortgage backed securities, 2) it will most likely happen in 2013, 3) they need to see more economic improvement from the second half of this year before they move to taper and 4) they would not give a specific date for the first taper. The fact that there was no specific date for the Fed to begin tapering kept MBS at an elevated level which kept rates low. What's on the agenda for this week? Mortgage Rates Currently Trending: NEUTRAL We have a big week for economic data...but it won't start until tomorrow. MBS are moving upward this morning on speculation over the German GDP data due out this week. We only have one economic report this afternoon with our U.S. Treasury budget, and we do not have any major U.S. Treasury auctions this week. The rest of the week is packed with data about inflation levels (PPI and CPI) - these are most likely going to continue to show very tame inflation levels on a month-over-month basis. Tuesday's Retail Sales report and Friday's Consumer Sentiment Index will be the biggest reports of the week. Bottom Line: There may be some benefit to floating your interest rate and watching the market carefully. However, this is really a case by case decision and should be discussed with your Mortgage Professional. We are testing some technical resistance levels, and if we break above them it could benefit mortgage rates. If we bounce off of them though it could lead to rate deterioration very quickly. Monitor real time market data with your Mortgage Professional to stay a step ahead of lender reprices and to cash in on market gains that help mortgage rates.                                RateAlert’s Most Trusted Mortgage Lending Professionals: Loan Professions that subscribe to RateAlert Executive services have the training and market knowledge at their fingertips, along with live trading data during market hours to expertly help navigate the difficult and often times confusing process of understanding rate movements and which factors may cause volatility when considering whether or not to lock. If you’d like to learn more about what things to consider when timing the market in an effort to obtain the best interest rates, don’t hesitate to contact the person who sent you this commentary.
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Cash/Shiller Home Price Index +NEWS

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Bob Rosenbaum, Jr. 1st Portfolio Lending Corp. The Rosenbaum Lending Group Phone: (703) 879-5200 Cellular (703) 608-1110 NMLS:# 649782 Bob@MyTalentedLender.com www.MyTalentedLender.com

Featured Chart for Wednesday, July 31th The Case/Shiller 20-city Composite Home Price Index rose 12.2% from May of 2012 to May of 2013 and was the largest annual increase since March 2006.

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17 Money-Saving Back To School Shopping Tips

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Bob Rosenbaum, Jr. 1st Portfolio Lending Corp. The Rosenbaum Lending Group Phone: (703) 879-5200 Cellular (703) 608-1110 NMLS: # 649782 Bob@MyTalentedLender.com www.MyTalentedLender.com

17 Money-Saving Back To School Shopping Tips Without a plan, back-to-school shopping can become an expensive hassle. Here is a checklist that will help keep your family on time, on task, and on budget: Supplies Stick to the teacher's list of supplies Shop at home first; you may already own most items Wait until tax-free holidays Buy plain lunch-boxes and let kids decorate Put names on everything Clip coupons from Sunday circulars Shop discount stores first Don't forget about grocery store sales Follow stores' social media accounts for sale alerts Buy in bulk and split among multiple families Clothing Vintage is big, try thrift shops If not vintage, go discount, such as TJ Maxx, Marshall's, Nordstrom Rack If not discount, try gilt.com, zulily.com and myhabit.com Make alterations to old clothes: Hem pants, dye shirts, sew on cool patches Organize or find a clothing swap with other moms in your area Old Navy, Gap Kids, and The Children's Place refund the difference on new sale items within 14 days Use Craigslist to sell stuff for extra cash

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Market is CRA CRA today ...

We opened +100bps and then fell 10 minutes later to +9bps ... And it has been up and down like that all day.  Pricing has been suspended and open and suspended again ... Thankfully, all of my clients are locked - are you?

Housing data was plentiful today with both good news and not so good news. Home prices continue to move higher as evidenced by the 12.2% year-over-year gain in the Case/Shiller 20-city Composite Home Price Index. It was the biggest annual gain since March of 2006. From April to May, prices rose 2.4% for the 20-city index.

Over in the foreclosure front, Corelogic reports that completed foreclosures dropped by nearly 20% from June of 2012 (68,000) to June of 2013 (55,000). The 55,000 in June was slightly higher than the 53,000 recorded in May. Since the beginning of this year, foreclosure inventories have declined by 14%. A completed foreclosure occurs when a property is auctioned and results in the purchase of the home at auction by either a third party, such as an investor, or by the lender.

The homeownership rate in the U.S. has now fallen back to levels not seen in two decades and is well below its record high of 69.2% hit back in 2004, currently at 65.1%. During the recent housing crisis, more than 7 million Americans were ripped from their homes after the bubble burst and busted. The rate is expected to fall to 64% due to foreclosures as people enter the rental markets.

Last week and the week ahead ...

Forwarded exclusively by:	Bob Rosenbaum The Rosenbaum Lending Group Office: (703) 879-5200 Email: Bob@MyTalentedLender.com website: www.MyTalentedLender.com NMLS#: 649782
Monday, July 29, 2013
Pending Home Sales Climb 10.9% Pending Home Sales climbed 10.9% from this time last year according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  Pending Home Sales are homes that have active sales contracts but have not yet closed. On a month-over-month basis, sales pulled back -0.4 percent.  This is actually positive news as the market was expected a drop of over 1.00% due to higher mortgage rates during this term.  The fact that the housing market is able to absorb the slight uptick in mortgage rates is good news. Based on year-to-date sales activity, and stable contract signings expected for the balance of the year, NAR projects existing-home sales to rise more than 8 percent in 2013.  Inventory shortages will lead the median price to rise by nearly 11 percent this year.                                        Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap Last week mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -49  basis points from last Friday's close which caused 30 year fixed rates to move higher.  This ended the bond rally that had lasted for the two weeks prior to last week. As we have discussed, MBS sell off when there is positive economic news.  We certainly could have sold off even more given last week's data with Durable Goods Orders much stronger than expected (4.2 vs 0.5) and the Consumer Sentiment Index rising from 84.1 to 85.1.  Existing Home Sales missed the market expectations but was still robust.  New Home Sales enjoyed some nice gains in terms of unit sales and price increases. Demand for our 7 year Treasury auction saw some decent demand but our 5 year and 2 year auctions saw decreased demand. MBS would have lost more ground (even higher rates for you) if it weren't for a WSJ article that speculated that the Fed would change their language at this week's FOMC meeting to calm the markets that they would not be increasing their rates for a long time.  We agree.  They will certainly leave their Fed Funds rate alone but they will eventually have to start to pull back on bond purchases and those bond purchases are what impacts your mortgage rates...not their Fed Fund rate. This Week's Mortgage Rates Forecast Mortgage Rates Currently Trending: HIGHER Expect much more volatility this week as traders watch the plethora of economic data that is released this week - and all of it with the potential to move the markets.  Week to week now, the common theme seems to be the markets watching to see what the Fed may do about withdrawing/tapering QE3.  Strong news bodes well for the growth of the economy but may hasten the Fed's move out of QE3; weaker news keeps the Fed from tapering but emphasizes the weaknes in the economy.  An ugly catch-22 no matter how you look at it. BOTTOM LINE:  It's a good time to have an interest rate lock/float conversation with your Mortgage Professional.  Some scenarios make it easy to advise to lock, others make it more of a time to float.  Talk with your Most Trusted Mortgage Professional to decide what options are available and what actions may be right for you.  Whatever you decide, be prepared for a roller coaster week full of volatility.  Be sure to stay tuned to live market data with your Mortgage Professional to stay a step ahead of lender reprices and to cash in on market gains that help mortgage rates. Be prepared for any negative market performance that could push mortgage rates higher.                                        RateAlert’s Most Trusted Mortgage Lending Professionals: Loan Professions that subscribe to RateAlert Executive services have the training and market knowledge at their fingertips, along with live trading data during market hours to expertly help navigate the difficult and often times confusing process of understanding rate movements and which factors may cause volatility when considering whether or not to lock. If you’d like to learn more about what things to consider when timing the market in an effort to obtain the best interest rates, don’t hesitate to contact the person who sent you this commentary. This commentary has been sent to you by the Mortgage Loan Originator (MLO) above because they thought you may find it interesting or helpful. The views and opinions offered do not necessarily represent the views of your MLO. Please contact them with any questions or to find out more about the information listed herein and how to work with them
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Home Prices Increase ...

Consumer bellwether United Parcel Service (UPS) reported that second quarter profits declined by 4% as customers moved to lower price shipping companies. Revenues came in at $13.51 billion versus the $13.59 billion expected. UPS is considered a bellwether along with FedEx due to the high volume and large assortment of goods they move around the globe.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported today that housing prices rose 7.3% in the 12 months ended in May as buyers vied for a smaller amount of listings as inventories have declined. In addition, there was a 0.7% rise from April to May. The FHFA Housing Price Index measures transactions for single-family properties that are financed through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The closely watched S&P 500 Stock Index hit yet another closing record high (1,675) yesterday and can be attributed in part to the easy money policies from the Federal Reserve (the Fed). The Fed has been purchasing $85 billion a month in Treasury Securities and Mortgage Backed Securities in an effort to stimulate the economy and to ensure job growth.

There were no economic reports released today and the rest of the week's calendar is on the light side with readings on New Home Sales due out tomorrow and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday.

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